by John Zogby
Herman Cain’s limited funding and campaign organization will make it difficult for him to survive dozens of state primaries and win the Republican nomination. However, his prominent standing in current polls is real and indicative of strengths he brings to the chase.
Our latest IBOPE Zogby interactive poll has Cain leading the GOP field at 38%. Polls continue to be volatile because Republican voters are hard to please, and none of the candidates has yet to meet their standards for pure conservatism and ability to beat Barack Obama.
Four different Republicans have led our polls since late last year: non-candidate Chris Christy, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Cain (but not once has Mitt Romney led). Polls taken months before the first primaries are not predictive of who will win the nomination, but I feel very confident that our polling is accurately measuring current GOP voter preferences. More than 90 percent of our online panel consists of likely voters, and we know that those who identify as likely Republican primary voters are very motivated. These are the people who vote in lower turnout primaries and help candidates win. (A short note on process: we draw a random sample from a pool of potential respondents who get an invitation to take part in a survey. Only they can take the survey and they never know what the subject matter will be until they initiate the poll.)
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